Romo vs upper tier teams

[Terd Ferguson]

www.bloggingtheboys.com/2011/6/6/2209824/how-has-tony-romo-performed-against-quality-opponents

tony romo's career performance against quality opponents is something to smile about.

One of the most persistent storylines that dogged the Cowboys until the end of the 2009 season was the notion of the December swoon. The story had gained an almost mythic quality: as soon as the calendar turned to December, the Cowboys were expected to collapse. More specifically, the Cowboys' high profile quarterback was expected to collapse and the tag of a 'sunshine superman' - who only performs well early in the season - became increasingly associated with Tony Romo.

Of course, Tony Romo put that story to bed permanently in 2009, but one of the more nefarious allegations that live on like the undead in the darkest recesses of the interwebs is that Romo pads his stats against weak teams and underperforms against quality teams.

Irrefutable fact or vicious slander? Time to set the stat hound loose to sniff out the truth as we slice and dice Tony Romo's performance against better and lesser opponents.

Let's put the stat-padding story out of its misery right away. Tony Romo's career passer rating against quality opponents (teams that won 9 or more games that season) is 94.1, only marginally lower than his 95.5 career average. Nothing to see here, move along, ladies and gentlemen, move along.

A closer look at the splits by opponent W/L record in the table below shows that Romo does have better numbers against the truly terrible teams in the league. But which QB doesn't?

Interestingly, the only drop-off we see is against teams that finished the season 8-8, and that's due to four specific divisional games. In each of Romo's first four years as a starter ('06-'09), there was always one team in the division that finished 8-8. And each year, Romo picked that team for a little INT extravaganza:

2006 vs Giants, L 22-36, 2 TDs, 2 INTs
2007 vs Eagles, L 6-10, 0 TDs, 3 INTs
2008 @ Redskins, W 14-10, 1 TD, 2 INTs
2009 vs Giants, L 31-33, 1 TD, 3 INTs

In 2010, Romo did not face a team that finished 8-8, which probably saved him from a couple more INTs. That is, if you subscribe to the theory that randomly assembled stats from the past are indicative of the future.

Here's Romo's full breakdown by opponent wins.

Tony Romo career reg. season passer rating by opponent W/L record
Opp. Wins No. of games CMP ATT CMP% YDS YPA TD INT QB Rating
12+ 7 136 212 64.2% 1,749 8.25 12 6 97.0
9-11 16 313 508 61.6% 4,023 7.92 31 17 92.8
8 8 270 428 63.1% 3,096 7.23 15 17 79.9
5-7 16 370 556 66.5% 4,460 8.02 32 14 99.7
0-4 12 237 366 64.8% 3,322 9.08 28 8 110.3
Total 59 1,326 2,070 64.1% 16,650 8.04 118 62 95.5

[Sideshow Bob]

VERY nice

[matt51180]

I truly believe he is a really really really good QB. But, just like anyone with a brain can tell, what makes a QB is what he is surrounded by. Main the OL. He can have all the weapons in the world, but if he doesn't have time to pass or has to run for his life (both of which he has had to do a lot of), then it doesn't matter the talent the QB has.

[Terd Ferguson]

Look at Brady 2 years ago. They had a crap OL and he had a crap season. He is "the golden boy" who can do no wrong, but he didn't play well and they didn't win. Does he suck? No, but his OL sure did.

[Sideshow Bob]

here's a GREAT write-up about how unfairly maligned romo is...

thelandryhat.com/2011/07/12/tony-romo-elite-nfl-quarterback/

Yesterday, due to a lack of anything substantive to discuss, the NFL network turned to a well that never runs dry — bashing Tony Romo. I suppose it began innocently enough with Kurt Warner — the only one in this that’s worth listening to by the way — saying that he felt Tony was a top ten quarterback in the league. He added that he believes Tony has the ability to win a Super Bowl. Naturally, many writers and talking heads were quick to counter with the same generic arguments we hear about Romo every year. He’s not vocal enough. He can’t win in the playoffs. He doesn’t take care of the football. Frankly, it’s all a bunch of hogwash.

The signal caller in Dallas will always face a heightened level of scrutiny. It just comes with the job. But, it’s ridiculous how negatively Romo is portrayed. Essentially the guy has played four full seasons in the NFL. In that time frame, he’s led the ‘Boys to the playoffs three times, made three Pro-Bowls, won two NFC East titles, and broken several team passing records. He has started just sixty-one games in his career and is already on the verge of being one of the fifty most valuable Cowboys ever (Pro Football Reference’s Approximate Value Ratings). It’s a bit asinine to ignore these things because of four playoff games — one of which he dominated.

It is extremely premature to decide that Romo can’t perform in the playoffs. For one, he doesn’t have enough of a track record. But, more than that, he receives too much blame for the Cowboys’ recent playoff losses.

His first playoff defeat was the infamous fumbled field goal attempt game. There’s no need to rehash the details. We all remember. However, what’s so frequently forgotten is that Romo drove them down the field and put them in position to win that game. Also, it seems silly to knock his abilities as a quarterback based on something that had nothing to do with him playing quarterback. He shouldn’t have been holding in the first place. That fumbled snap was as much Bill Parcells’ fault as it was Romo’s.

In 2007, Tony was one of the ten most valuable players in the league. He put together one of the finest passing seasons we have ever seen in Dallas. Without a doubt, he was one of the best three players on a team that won thirteen games. Yet, all anyone remembers is the loss to the Giants in the playoffs, a loss that was more the team’s fault than Tony’s. Certainly, he struggled that day, but he was let down in a big way by his offensive line. Anyone that watched that game surely remembers how much duress he was under. His lone interception was on their last offensive play of the game and was the product of him having no choice but to force a throw on fourth down. Just like in the Seattle game the year before, Romo had put them in position for a shot at the win.

Then there is the Minnesota game of 2009. Are we really going to say that one was Tony’s fault? That loss was a systematic failure, something that carried over into the first eight games of last season. The Cowboys’ offensive line was beyond awful that day. Tony might as well have been playing with trash cans blocking for him. The defense also failed to show up. They failed as a team, just as they did in 2007.

The list of quarterbacks that have been declared unable to win the big one is pretty significant. Immediately, John Elway and Peyton Manning come to mind. It took both of those guys a lot longer than four and a half seasons to finally win a championship. Also, I think it goes without saying that Dan Marino didn’t have that much success in the playoffs, yet he’s viewed as one the greatest to ever play the position.

Ideally, all this heat on Romo will eventually die down, but that’s unlikely. For one, he’s an easy target. Anytime a media outlet needs to generate some attention, they can always turn to a discussion on the Cowboys’ polarizing quarterback. Right or wrong, his laid back persona and desire to date attractive blonde celebrities makes the target on his back even bigger. If Tony wants to truly move past the criticism, he’s going to need a ring.
My hope for Romo is that he follows the path of another Dallas superstar — Dirk Nowitzki. In case you’ve forgotten Dirk was labeled too soft to win it all. Obviously, he shook that tag this year and now he’s being celebrated as one of the greatest ever. All it takes is one.

[Terd Ferguson]

You know, the things that plague me the most about Romo are the Seattle playoff game and the NY playoff game.

In Seattle, he should not have been holding like the writer said. It CAN be argued that since Romo had been the holder all year, it was more consistent that he remain the holder to keep the kicker comfortable. HOWEVER, we replaced the kicker during Romo's stint as the starter. When the kicker was replaced, it was a PERFECT time to replace Romo as the holder without disturbing anyone's comfort zone. (and I said at the time they should replace Romo, this isn't hindsight talking)
For that, Parcells was an IDIOT.

The NY game has been rehashed over and over. If Crayton just finishes his route, he catches the game winning TD pass.

If those two games go another way, the confidence in the team and in Romo are completely different....and confidence goes a LONG way. Just as Dirk and the Mavs.

[Sideshow Bob]

Jul 19, 2011 7:51:22 GMT -6 Terd Ferguson said:

You know, the things that plague me the most about Romo are the Seattle playoff game and the NY playoff game.

In Seattle, he should not have been holding like the writer said. It CAN be argued that since Romo had been the holder all year, it was more consistent that he remain the holder to keep the kicker comfortable. HOWEVER, we replaced the kicker during Romo's stint as the starter. When the kicker was replaced, it was a PERFECT time to replace Romo as the holder without disturbing anyone's comfort zone. (and I said at the time they should replace Romo, this isn't hindsight talking)
For that, Parcells was an IDIOT.

The NY game has been rehashed over and over. If Crayton just finishes his route, he catches the game winning TD pass.

If those two games go another way, the confidence in the team and in Romo are completely different....and confidence goes a LONG way. Just as Dirk and the Mavs.

EXACTLY!

He's lost three playoff games.

He played well in Seattle, but people only remember the dropped hold.

He played well LATE against the Giants, but Crayton effed him over, yet people blame Romo.

NOBODY played well at Minnesota, ESPECIALLY the offensive line. Romo had NO CHANCE that day.

[Sideshow Bob]

Great article on Romo in USA Today...

www.usatoday.com/sports/football/nfl/cowboys/story/2011-08-31/Cowboys-Tony-Romo-still-searching-for-career-moment/50199082/1

I'll post the entire article below, but this paragraph really stands out to me:

The Cowboys signal-caller has produced a saddlebag full of impressive stats, including a career 64.1% completion mark with a nearly 2-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio (118-62). Romo ranks as the league's fourth all-time leading passer with a 95.5 rating — ahead of contemporaries Tom Brady, Peyton Manning, Drew Brees and Ben Roethlisberger.

Here's the entire article:

Cowboys' Tony Romo still searching for career moment
by Jon Saraceno, USA TODAY

The quixotic story line of Tony Romo, the small-school draft reject who defied odds to quarterback "America's Team," lost its romance some time ago. Even Dallas Cowboys fans are on edge regarding the regularly skewered quarterback.

Suddenly, the kid with the disarming smile and fun-loving style is 31. The only ring he wears is a new wedding band.

Entering his ninth NFL season, Romo no longer is the intriguing protégé of Bill Parcells. At compensation of nearly $13 million for 2011, he remains a richly endowed, gifted player in search of a defining moment.

"A polarizing figure — people either love him or … well, it's funny, but a lot of them are Cowboy fans," says CBS analyst Rich Gannon, league MVP in 2002 as Super Bowl XXXVII quarterback of the Oakland Raiders. "I have met him, and I sense he is highly competitive and motivated. The one constructive criticism I would give Tony is that he has to be more demanding of his teammates."

Romo's laid-back demeanor, celebrity status and omnipresent backward cap continue to suggest he might be too loosey-goosey to elevate his game to elite standing. When Babe Laufenberg, a former Cowboy, says Romo is "a different cat," he is not embellishing. Before his marriage in May to Candice Crawford, a former Miss Missouri, the quarterback's bachelor party in West Virginia included a Romo-inspired game of hide-and-seek, he told news reporters.

The real issue for Cowboys fans: Romo has one crummy playoff win.

"If you are not getting criticized (as quarterback), you probably just won the Super Bowl," he tells a locker room visitor. "Then, a year or two later, that guy will be criticized."

For years, critics harped on Green Bay Packers quarterback Aaron Rodgers for his failure to find postseason success — until last season when the team won the Super Bowl.

Critics of his scratch golf game make Jerry Jones laugh. The Cowboys owner admires the quarterback's streak of competitiveness.

"I applaud that. What would you rather have him doing?" Jones asks. "He is not what I would call a late-night jet fighter looking for barroom action."

Romo did not play the final 10 games of last season after breaking his collarbone against the New York Giants. He returns with a new head coach (Jason Garrett), a rekindled vigor and the familiar bull's-eye of grand expectations as he prepares for the season opener Sept. 11 against the blitz-crazed New York Jets.

"I missed playing — I guess you could say my passion was reaffirmed," Romo says. "When you ask me if it is my time (to step up), I think I have always had a sense of urgency. I do know that I feel as well as I ever have going into a season.

"There are two phases to a career. This is my second phase. I relate it to high school. As a junior or a senior, you have (better) command. Now you tell (teammates), 'Hey, I need you to do this.' I am a senior now."

Romo realizes he is considered aloof by some teammates, adding, "At lunchtime, I can't necessarily play dominoes" because of responsibilities. Last season, several Cowboys extolled the leadership qualities of Jon Kitna. In April, tight end Martellus Bennett suggested on radio that Kitna had earned the right to challenge Romo for his job.

"Things of that nature are not in the best interests of the Dallas Cowboys. So I talked to him and told him so," Romo says.

Stellar during season

With his knack for producing big plays rarely in doubt but his leadership skills in question, Romo took an active role in players-only workouts during the lockout. The too-much-credit-too-much-blame conundrum confronting all quarterbacks was something he learned how to deal with from Parcells, who signed Romo as a free agent out of Eastern Illinois in 2003.

"It's the feeding frenzy of the media," he says. "Coach Parcells always stressed, 'You have to have a turtle shell.' All the outside influences need to bounce off. You have to move on."

Romo is a bona fide hare during the regular season, finding plenty of success.

What he and the Cowboys need is the staying power of the tortoise come January, when they have struggled. Dallas has not won a Super Bowl since the 1995 season nor a road playoff game since the 1992 season.

A major part of the disparagement reserved for Romo emanates from standards set by predecessors.

Further derision derives from the misperception that winning isn't important to him — "that he is just living the dream," says tight end Jason Witten, his best friend on the team.

"The way that it comes across is that he is just happy to be quarterback of the Dallas Cowboys — it is the furthest thing from the truth," Witten says. "I think people would be surprised at how competitive that guy is."

The Cowboys signal-caller has produced a saddlebag full of impressive stats, including a career 64.1% completion mark with a nearly 2-1 touchdown-to-interception ratio (118-62). Romo ranks as the league's fourth all-time leading passer with a 95.5 rating — ahead of contemporaries Tom Brady, Peyton Manning, Drew Brees and Ben Roethlisberger.

That elite group has won a combined seven Super Bowls. Romo can't get past the wild-card round.

Meanwhile, Romo's Cowboys are 1-3 in the playoffs since he replaced Drew Bledsoe during the 2006 season.

For fans accustomed to quarterbacks Roger Staubach and Troy Aikman, both Hall of Famers, Romo's postseason performance has been lackluster.

Staubach won a championship in his first season as the starter. In Aikman's first five seasons, he won two Super Bowls. Danny White produced five playoff victories and three NFC Championship Game appearances in his first three years.

"Tony doesn't have the body language — he is not Troy Aikman or Roger Staubach," says Laufenberg, a quarterback-turned-broadcaster. "There are many things he does that, quite honestly, if I were his agent, I would say, 'Tony, put your hat on straight.' People mistake that for being non-competitive."

Judged by titles

Garrett, a former Cowboys quarterback and offensive coordinator, became Romo's third head coach after Wade Phillips was dismissed as part of last season's 6-10 flameout.

"He has grown every day, every year," Garrett says of Romo. "But we have to get better as a team."

At his worst, Romo is a sandlot-reckless, turnover-prone quarterback. At his best, he is a nimble, clever and improvisational playmaker.

In recent seasons, Romo has improved many facets of his game, quietly grinding away on his footwork, accuracy and ball security. For many, including Romo and his detractors, it is not enough.

It might never be enough — unless Romo is fitted for that other ring.

"There is a chip (on his shoulder) — absolutely," Witten says. "He wants to play at a high level, not just (be remembered) for a hot streak for a couple of years. He does not welcome criticism. But he accepts it. At the end of the day, it is all about whether he can win a championship. Until that happens, he will be criticized across the board."