Ranger's win Darvish bidding

[bigdave1310]

Rangers Win Bidding For Yu Darvish
By Ben Nicholson-Smith [December 19, 2011 at 10:07pm CST]
If Yu Darvish plays for a Major League team in 2012, he'll be wearing a Rangers uniform. Texas won the rights to the Japanese right-hander via the posting system with a record $51.7MM bid, Yahoo's Jeff Passan reports. MLB has confirmed that the Rangers submitted the highest bid and that it was accepted.

The bid, which exceeds the $51.1MM Boston paid for the rights to speak with Daisuke Matsuzaka five years ago, provides the Rangers with a 30-day negotiating window. If the sides don't agree to a deal within the next 30 days, Darvish will stay in Japan and the Nippon Ham Fighters won't obtain any cash from the Rangers.

Darvish posted a 1.44 ERA with 10.7 K/9 and 1.4 BB/9 in 232 innings this past season and he hasn't posted an ERA above 2.00 since 2007. MLB agents suggested to MLBTR’s Tim Dierkes that it will cost at least $100MM to lock Darvish up, including the posting fee and contract.

If Rangers GM Jon Daniels reaches a deal with Darvish, Texas' rotation will look considerably different in 2012. C.J. Wilson signed with the Angels as a free agent and Neftali Feliz will move to the rotation. Alexi Ogando, Colby Lewis, Derek Holland, Matt Harrison and Scott Feldman provide manager Ron Washington with an abundance of alternatives for the rest of the rotation.

Agent Arn Tellem issued a statement explaining that he was pleased to learn the Rangers were the high bidders, according to Jon Paul Morosi of FOX Sports (on Twitter).

"The Rangers are an extraordinary franchise in an exceptional city with equally exceptional fans," Tellem said. '"Yu is honored to be prized so highly and recognized as a once-in-a-generation pitcher. We look forward to getting negotiations underway."

The Rangers are on the clock and now have until January 18th to reach a deal with Darvish. The Blue Jays, Yankees and Cubs also placed bids on Darvish before last week's deadline. Conversely, the Giants, Athletics, Marlins, Mets, Rays, Angels, Twins, Red Sox and Orioles did not bid, according to recent reports. The Blue Jays had been favored to win the bidding for Darvish ever since the process wrapped up.

[bigdave1310]

II'm not on board with the Darvish bid this is a reach that has about a 30% chance of failing. He has extraordinary numbers in Japan that rates as a little better then Triple A level. He's done good in limited exposer to MLB hitters in the World Baseball Classic. The Japan's baseballs a smaller and have less weight, creates more movement. He's been throwing an excesses of 500 innings yearly way to many pitches on a young arm. No Japanese born pitcher has had a career ERA under 3.90 in the majors including Nomo and DiceK, which both also looked great in international play against major leaguers. The minor league rating system would have him rated better than Perez not as good as a Matt Moore that just got an extension worth less then Darvish's posting cost, yet we still have to pay a contract in the neighborhood of 5 for $50 million. He doesn't rate better then Feliz so he'll be in the rotation at the expense of Harrison or Ogando. If you are telling me you're 100% sure he's got better stuff and upside that exceeds both of them at this point, that's crazy seeing they've faced major league hitters for a full season and both faired really well. So that means the weakest link is Lewis which is our opening day starter so not going to be replaced. I think if we had a staff that had a glaring hole this would be a perfect signing but we have high ceiling guys that need their chances to pitch. 

[Terd Ferguson]

Why do you keep saying he throws 500 innings? Where did you see that? When I look at his stats, the most they show him throwing is 232. Just wondering where you saw that.

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Yu_Darvish

[Terd Ferguson]

By the way, I'm on board with this signing. It is a high risk, high reward type move. The Rangers (and more importantly their billionaire pocketbooks) knew the money going in. They are essentially trading CJ for Yu. On the d-bag scale, that is a win for sure.

This guy has something no other Japanese pitcher has had, he is big (and he is only half Japanese, accounting for his 6'5" 220lb size). He started pitching on a MLB type rotation last year to get accustomed to every 5th day.

I look at pitchers like CBs in football. You can never have enough good ones. Get to spring training and let everyone earn their spot.

[bigdave1310]

Clubhouse Confidential is my source for pitch count they've been talking about that for months. He pitches once every 7th day with lots of simulated game innings in between. Hey is half Iranian his father is from Iran. 

I know he's got talent never have doubted that just to high of a risk seeing Japanese pitchers have all came over with the same hype. Like I said has about a 30% chance to fail for $100 million plus needs to be down in single digits like 9%. Would prefer to spend less risky money on a center fielder and Prince Fielder. 

Doesn't take away the fact that he's pitched with a smaller lighter baseball in Japan which he creates more movement with. The baseball experts not me say this along with the innings and the stats about other Japanese's pitchers is somethingI easily researched those are cold hard facts. 

As far as never having to many good arms you're right and wrong. If you have good arms progressing through the system you should have 6-7 good starters that are in varied levels of their career Holland, Feliz, Harrison, Ogando, Perez, Ramirez, and now Darvish all at same level same high upside and now Ogando will be shuffled back to the bullpen and Perez and Ramirez are effectively blocked. Of course that's if we are keeping both Feldman and Lewis in 2012. Seeing they both have expiring contracts in 2012 next year would be a optimal time to take a high end risk. 

If I truly thought Darvish would be a difference maker or at least better then Ogando, or Harrison I'd be totally on board with this signing. 

Now the Rangers are up against the luxury tax $140 million and still haven't addressed 1sr base or center field.

[Terd Ferguson]

Sorry, but I believe in Daniels and Ryan. I still maintain you can never have enough arms. Having a surplus means being able to deal them for parts you need (like a CF or 1B). Also, we have some large salary coming off the books too, between Cruz and Young in the next couple of years.

Ryan, Daniels, and most importantly the real owners with the deep pockets know what they are getting into and they know their budget and their talent better than anyone outside their offices.

I don't discount the smaller ball, but I also don't discount that he is large, even for an American pitcher. He has an advantage over those guys (other Japanese pitchers). Plus, he was not pitching every 7th day last year. He switched to a MLB like rotation to get used to it and I don't count simulated games or pitching between starts. They do it one way in Japan and we do something similar here. It sure didn't seem to hurt Colby Lewis.

[bigdave1310]

I don't discount Daniels or Ryan's knowledge. Daniels is no where close to prefect in my opinion with the SD and Baltimore trades this season we got hosed. 

And you've thrown out the believe in statement a few times I'll never have blind faith if something is no adding up or seems like it's bad for my team I'm going to say it. Like I've maintained about all sports in Dallas since you've known me. Like I did about Costa, Coleman, Spears, James, Brooking, Buehler  and Newman before the Cowboys season started. 

I've also pointed out when I've been wrong like with Romo and Beltre. 

[mexicanjunior]

I don't know anything about this guy but I am happy to see the Rangers spend some to try and improve their pitching. Would have preferred a better known commodity but it's cool they are willing to roll the dice to try and make the rotation better. CJ was a spare in the playoffs, I don't think he has a big game mentality, maybe this guy will.

[Terd Ferguson]

There is too much unknown here. Neither of us has spent time watching Darvish pitch. That, along with 2 straight trips to the World Series is where my belief in Daniels and Ryan come from. If we were talking about Gio Gonzalez we would both have informed opinions. We don't. We are basing it on some clips we've seen and things we've read. Neither of us is well informed, so I either have to believe in our front office, or question their judgement. I believe in them.

[bigdave1310]

I really want Darvish to become an Ace someone to dual Verlander and Weaver in the playoffs. BTW if you're following either Detroit or LAA will be getting Saunders as their 5th starter that would make a top 2 rotation in baseball for either team. 

[bigdave1310]

BTW there's a chance the Rangers are performing a C-Block move win bid then low ball so he doesn't sign. Next year there is no bidding or posting fee involved so 5 years for $60 million would be awesome.We'd be able to meet with him for 30 days build a relationship that would land him in 2013 for the right cost. 

The one pro I'll say he does improve 40 man roster and 25 active roster. 

[Sideshow Bob]

While I realize this could be a very risky signing, Darvish really seems like a very special talent and a rare opportunity for the Rangers to get a guy in here who is both still young and has legitimate ace potential. It could end up failing spectacularly, but this is one of those times I think it's worth it to bet big.

[Terd Ferguson]

That's how you become great....hang your balls out there.

[bigdave1310]

Thought about this all day. Went back and rid everything I could find about Darvish and watched every clip I could on youtube. 

You become great building through the farm system, with free agent signings and international scouting. Which this is two parts of that the front office and international scouting played a huge role. Our balls are hungout there pretty far for sure. 

So this discounts the scouting done of Ogando our lowest WHIP, Feliz that if he was coming up from the minors or an international signing would over shadow Matt Moore and Darvish. Trust the system this seems like a panic move to me. This is a weak answer to a Pujols signing that frankly didn't need a response. 

So with the addition of Darvish that means Ogando will be relegated to be a setup man once again. So minus 13 wins and CJs 16 wins 29 total for an unproven Feliz and Darvish.  That's a huge risk coming off of a World Series. The 16 wins of CJ were going to be hard enough to over come. Not to say Feliz and Darvish will not combine to win 29 games but will they?

Ogando had our teams lowest WHIP the 16th lowest in baseball. Had a 3.51 ERA and 169 innings as a new starter. Will Darvish do that? 

The Angels aren't beating us by their signings this off season if this blows up we are beating ourselves. We iced our on kicker. 

There is no doubt Darvish has talent but may no translate to the majors here's some scouting I e done. 


1st Strikeout nice split fingered fast ball dropped out of the zone. About 60% of major league hitters will swing at that pitch. 

2nd Strikeout high 4 seemed fast with tailing action. I wanna see if he can get that raising action on the American baseballs. Great pitch. 

3rd Strikeout 6" inside not a strikeout bad call. 

4th Strikeout another great split finger dropped out of zone would induce lots of swing and misses. 

5th Strikeout only the worst of the worst major league hitter swings at a pitch that bad. 

6th Strikeout another raising fastball think that's his 4 seemed fast ball. Doubt that pitch is possible with our American baseballs if it is will be lots of Ks. 

7th strikeout middle of the plate strike very hittable 

8th strikeout again way inside not going to be a strikeout to most major league hitters. 

9th strikeout nice rising action lots of tail spin. It's high out of zone but would be hard to layoff of. Those look like they're some where between 86-93 mph looks like he changes speeds on them. 

10th strikeout low split finger boarding on a fork ball. Doesn't have the action of a curve ball. It's out of the zone will fool some major league hitters but not about 60% will just take. 

11th strikeout that looked like a circle change up. Different then the split fingers I've watched so far. Nice off speed action. 

12th strikeout only Juando would swing at something that low and outside. 

13 strikeout middle of the plate strike very hittable 

14th strikeout more nice off speed stuff. He seems to have several different speeds to his off speed pitches. Looks like he throughs a split finger and a slider. 

15th strikeout inside about 4" inches sometime will twist up a major league hitter. 

16th strikeout that maybe a over hand flat curve looks to drop 1 to 7 but it's outside and low. 

They showed mid to low 90s fast balls, sliders, split finger fastballs, and some 4 seemed fast balls that have rising action. I'm confused by the selection of strikeouts on his high light film. To many fastballs over the middle and several that were horrible swung at pitches. 

Would like to see more real game action not a high light reel to get a better scouting in. The film
Goes on and on nice view tried not giving everyone tired head I watched it 3 times grading every single strikeout.

[bigdave1310]

MLB network said Darvish throws a slurve that's the one dropping out of the zone. Cutter is what I'm calling his split finger. Says fastball is around 93 but can reach back and get 96 sometimes. Has 4 and 2 seemed fastballs. So my scouting is right as they are saying he is. 

Very interesting another thought I had tonight. It's crazy we are young Ogando and Harrison wore down toward the end of the season same could happen with Feliz and Darvish. 6 man rotation. Lewis, Holland, Ogando, Harrison, Darvish, Feliz. Then bullpen would be Feldman long man, Nathan closer, Adams and Lowe as setup men. Oliver, and Koji as speciality pitchers. Maybe have a 13 man bullpen to start season and only carry two catchers. 

6 man rotation would help get through the season and after the All-Star break could reduce back to 5. Would give us a fall back plan that keeps Ogando in the rotation and could give all our pitchers 170+ innings. Then once the season is over Lewis and Feldman are both free so opens up for Perez in a bullpen role. This is a year later then if want but could work.